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ABC7 Listens Poll: Bay Area Economy

Summary of Key Findings

By Willie Monroe

Aug. 3 - Here's a summary of an ABC7 Listens poll on the economy show people are coping but are very concerned with where things are going.

50% of the respondents in our latest ABC7 Listens Poll rated the the current state of the Bay Area economy as OK. 24% said it was either good (20%) or very good (4%), while 25% described it as either poor (20%) or very poor (5%).

50% also think the Bay Area economy will be doing about the same a year from now. 26% think it will be doing better and 16% think it will be doing worse then. The percentage of those who think the economy will be doing better a year from now (26%) has dropped somewhat since our January, 2005 ABC7 Listens Poll when 34% felt that way.

Energy cost or policy (23%) is now the problem mentioned most often by respondents as the biggest threat to the economy, rising considerably from our January poll when only 8% said that.

The federal budget deficit (15%), the weak dollar or trade deficit (13%) and the Iraq War (12%) were other problems mentioned frequently as the biggest threat to the economy.

46% said things were going OK financially for them and their family at this time. 32% said they were doing either well (24%) or very well (8%) while 22% said they were doing either poorly (16%) or very poorly (6%) for them now.

52% believe things will be going about the same for them financially a year from now, 26% think they will be doing better and 12% think they will be doing worse a year from now.

56% of the respondents said they could make ends meet but were holding back spending on non-essential items. 23% said they could make ends meet and pay for the extra things they wanted, while 20% said it was difficult just making ends meet.

60% said wages or income not keeping up with the cost of living was a significant problem for them. 56% said the cost of gas was a significant problem, 40%, the cost of housing, 38%, the cost of health insurance and 22%, the cost they pay for prescription drugs.

About half of those interviewed (48%) said the price of Bay Area real estate was having a significant impact on them and their family.

While 73% of non-homeowners said they would like to someday purchase a home in the Bay Area, only 12% think they will be able to do so. 63% think they will not be able afford a home here and 25% are not sure about this.

54% of homeowners say they have refinanced their mortgage during the past three years. 29% have done so more than once during that time.

68% say they believe Bay Area home prices will higher a year from now compared with only 7% ,who believe they will be lower then. 18% think they will be about the same and 7% are uncertain about this.

Survey Background Facts

Dates of Interviews: July 15th - 19th, 2005
Number of Interviews: 1,227 Bay Area Residents
Conducted Online by: Hertz Research, Petaluma, CA

How ABC7 Listens Polls are Conducted and Potential Sources of Error

ABC7 Listens Polls are conducted by Hertz Research of Petaluma, California. The polls are conducted online among Bay Area residents who registered in advance to participate in the ABC7 Listens Polling program. In order to create samples as representative of the entire Bay Area population as possible, the results for each poll are statistically weighted using a variety of demographic factors provided by respondents during the registration process. These statistical weighting procedures also take into account differences between groups of people who tend to use or not use the Internet.

Regardless of methodology, all polls are potentially affected by a number of factors that may influence their accuracy. A common source for survey inaccuracy is sampling error. The number of respondents largely determines sampling error. Statistical theory indicates that in the case of a poll with this sample size (1,227 Total Interviews), 95 percent of the time the results of a survey of this size would be the same as interviewing the entire population of the Bay Area, give or take approximately three percent. This is not a probability sample.

However, other sources of error also can impact the accuracy of poll results conducted online and with other techniques. These include but are not limited to the percentage of the population choosing to participate, the likelihood a possible respondent is at home or connected to the Internet, the wording, and ordering of questions, and the techniques used to determine possible survey participants and likely voters. The cumulative impact of all of these potential sources of error is impossible to assess precisely.

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